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investor crowding increases in retail stocks according to UBS analysis

UBS has identified TPR, TJX, and ROST as the most crowded long positions in its Softlines coverage, with TPR, HBI, FL, GIII, and ONON seeing significant increases in crowding scores. Conversely, GAP, AS, KTB, LULU, and M have experienced notable declines in long positions. Currently, no Softlines stocks are exhibiting crowding short momentum, which historically has shown weak performance.

off-price retailers outperform department stores in sales and profitability trends

Off-price retailers are significantly outperforming department stores in sales and profitability, capturing 59.5% of total sales and 76.6% of profits, according to UBS. The firm rates TJX Companies and Burlington Stores as Buys, while maintaining Sell ratings on Macy’s, Dillard’s, and Kohl’s due to weaker growth prospects. Despite a valuation premium, UBS expects off-price retailers to continue their strong performance and gain market share.

off-price retailers outperform department stores in sales and profitability trends

Off-price retailers are significantly outperforming department stores in both sales and profitability, capturing 59.5% of total sales and 76.6% of profits, according to UBS. The firm maintains Buy ratings for TJX Companies and Burlington Stores, while remaining bearish on department stores like Macy’s and Kohl’s due to weaker growth prospects. Despite higher valuations for off-price stocks, UBS expects their strong fundamentals to sustain this trend.

ubs downgrades outlook on us softline stocks amid declining consumer sentiment

UBS has downgraded its outlook on U.S. softline retail stocks to neutral, citing a decline in consumer sentiment and a weakening sales forecast. The bank noted three months of decreasing consumer willingness to spend and a 1.7% year-over-year drop in spending intentions for soft goods.Despite concerns about economic conditions, UBS believes that fear may be influencing sentiment more than actual financial stress, as most consumers are not personally worried about job loss. The firm highlights several buy-rated softline stocks, including AEO, ANF, and TJX, as potential long-term investment opportunities.
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